Amazon Buys Whole Foods
Good Morning Traders,
As of this writing 4:10 AM EST, here’s what we see:
US Dollar: Jun. USD is Up at 96.905.
Energies: Jul Crude is Down at 44.81.
Financials: The Sept 30 year bond is Up 5 ticks and trading at 155.25.
Indices: The June S&P 500 emini ES contract is 28 ticks Higher and trading at 2438.00.
Gold: The Aug gold contract is trading Down at 1251.30. Gold is 52 ticks Lower than its close.
This is not a correlated market. The dollar is Up+ and crude is Down- which is normal and the 30 year bond is trading Higher. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa. The indices are Up and Crude is trading Down- which is correlated. Gold is trading Down- which is correlated with the US dollar trading Up+. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don’t have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.
At this hour all of Asia is trading Higher. All of Europe is trading Higher at this hour.
Possible Challenges To Traders Today
–FOMC Member Dudley Speaks at 8 AM EST. This is major.
– Lack of major economic news.
We’ve elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 30 year bond (ZB) and The YM futures contract. The YM contract is the DJIA and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it’s liken to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.
On Friday the ZB made it’s move at around 8:30 AM EST after the 8:30 AM economic news was reported. The ZB hit a low at around that time and the YM hit a high. If you look at the charts below ZB gave a signal at around 8:30 AM and the YM was moving lower at the same time. Look at the charts below and you’ll see a pattern for both assets. ZB hit a low at around 8:30 AM and the YM hit a high. These charts represent the newest version of Trend Following Trades and I’ve changed the timeframe to a 30 minute chart to display better. This represented a long opportunity on the 30 year bond, as a trader you could have netted about 20 plus ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $31.25. We added a Donchian Channel to the charts to show the signals more clearly. Please note that the front month for the ZB contract is now September, 2017.
Charts Courtesy of Trend Following Trades built on a NinjaTrader platform Click on an image to enlarge it.
|ZB – Sept, 2017 – 6/16/17|
|YM- Sept, 2017 – 6/16/17|
On Friday we gave the markets an upside bias as the USD and the Bonds were all trading lower Friday morning. The Dow gained 24 points, the S&P closed flat and the Nasdaq dropped 14 points. Today we aren’t dealing with a correlated market and our bias is neutral.
Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
The news of the day on Friday was the mega-merger between Amazon and Whole Foods Markets. Amazon is of course the leading online etailer and Whole Foods Markets is a leader in providing healthy foods to the general public via supermarket type stores. The question is could this work? In certain ways it can. Imagine placing an online order for food at Whole Foods and picking it up without having to go thru checkout as your order is already paid for. Will the prices go down? Probably not as Amazon will want to recoup the capital to but Whole Foods Markets but no one can deny that it will be more convenient. Before we go haywire on tis just recall that in 2000 AOL purchased Time Warner and everyone thought that was going to be a major game changer and as it turned out, it wasn’t. Time will tell if Amazon can make this work….
Just so you understand, Market Correlation is Market Direction. It attempts to determine the market direction for that day and it does so by using a unique set of tools. In fact TradersLog published an article on this subject that can be viewed at: http://www.traderslog.com/market-correlation-is-market-direction/
As readers are probably aware I don’t trade equities. While we’re on this discussion, let’s define what is meant by a good earnings report. A company must exceed their prior quarter’s earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance. Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company’s shares. This is one of the reasons I don’t trade equities but prefer futures. There is no earnings reports with futures and we don’t have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc. Anytime the market isn’t correlated it’s giving you a clue that something isn’t right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is neutral. Could this change? Of course. In a volatile market anything can happen. We’ll have to monitor and see.
As I write this the crude markets are Lower and the futures are trading Higher. This is normal. Crude and the markets are now reverse correlated such that when the markets are rising, crude drops and vice-versa. On Friday July Crude dropped to a low of $44.51 a barrel. It would appear at the present time that crude has support at $44.14 a barrel and resistance at $45.25. This could change. We’ll have to monitor and see. Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump. Please note that the front month for crude is now July. Last December and after two years OPEC finally decided to cut production but the price crude is still tame (as of this writing). What they haven’t figured out yet is that the more countries like Canada and the US produce their own crude (by whatever means) the more crude prices will fall. The move by OPEC to cut production in an attempt to pump up prices is liken to “too little, too late” as the world doesn’t need their oil as much as they used to. Power equipment that used to need oil (Grass Trimmers, Lawn Mowers, Autos) now run on battery power and Canada and the United States are producing more of their own crude. As an update to this the non-OPEC countries have come to an agreement to unilaterally cut production across the board and this has served to temporarily raise crude prices. We’ll have to see if and how long this lasts…
If trading crude today consider doing so after 10 AM EST when the markets gives us better direction.
Crude Oil Is Trading Lower
Crude oil is trading Lower and the markets are Higher. This is normal. Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 9 AM EST, 11 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes. If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right. As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market. This is why monitoring order flow in today’s market is crucial. We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn’t have a few short years ago. High Frequency Trading is one of them. I’m not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading. Remember that without knowledge of order flow we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money will have no issue taking it from us. Regardless of whatever platform you use for trading purposes you need to make sure it’s monitoring order flow. Sceeto does an excellent job at this. To fully capitalize on this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the various market correlate. More on this in subsequent editions.
Nick Mastrandrea is the author of Market Tea Leaves. Market Tea Leaves is a daily newsletter that is dedicated to your trading success. We teach and discuss market correlation. Market Tea Leaves is published daily, pre-market in the United States and can be viewed at www.markettealeaves.com. Interested in Market Correlation? Want to learn more? Signup and receive Market Tea Leaves each day prior to market open. As a subscriber, you’ll also receive our daily Market Bias video that is only available to subscribers.